Impacts of exceptional drought in the Gem State as water managers look to winter 2022

BOISE, Idaho (CBS2) — Leaves are changing across the Gem State, but drought conditions remain.

Idaho's spring drought was exceptional, and the term exceptional means that conditions like this are only seen once in 50 to once in 100 years.

And with an upcoming La Niña winter, water managers are watching closely.

To understand this upcoming winter, first we need to break down southern oscillations.

They drive weather patterns - known as El Nino and La Niña.

La Niña is what we experienced last year, and what we are set to expect this year.

This oscillation is driven by wetter winters in the northwest and drier conditions in the southwest.

But what does that mean for Idaho?

Idaho Department of Water Resources Hydrologist David Hoekema has been tracking these conditions in the Gem State for decades.

This is a look at snowpack percent for La Niña winters across Idaho from 1991 to 2020. The 100% line indicated above average snowpack.

"We can say snowpack in Idaho in a La Niña winter will be above average," explains Hoekema. "The only exception to this is the Bear, the Salmon Falls track and the Owyhee basins."

This is a look at last winter. Keep in mind, snowpack normally peaks around march 1st.

Almost all above 100 percent of normal, a good indication of a good runoff season. Then spring came.

"We appeared to be in a dry spell, an exceptional dry spell, one like we haven't seen since 1924," Hoekema explains.

And keep in mind, climate records date back to 1895.

And runoff season, march to June is critical for precipitation.

But that's not what happened, instead we saw a very dry spring was coupled with record temperatures.

And that, is when demand for water went through the roof as crops came to fruition, quickly draining basins across the state.

"If you average all of the runoff from the basins, they dropped 25 percent," Hoekema shares. "That's crazy and I don't think it exists on record."

While Hoekema is not anticipating another exceptional drought due to probability, what does this mean heading into another La Niña?

"You see this pattern of consecutive years being drier than the one before," Hoekema explains. "And that's really concerning because if you look at this year. This is the first La Niña year, and we have another year coming and we can't get much drier than this and not have significant water shortages problems across the state."

Hoekema says if we get a good snowpack, which is expected. We should have good runoff season if temperatures hold off.

But for our friends in the southwestern United States, it's looking like another long fire season is in store.

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